Wednesday 17 June 2015

As RPF dissenters silent, Kagame is closer to life presidency


Kigali-Rwanda-News that Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is very much likely to get a third term in office after his last seven- year term ends in 2017, is not surprising. The East African nation’s president is “simply” walking in the footsteps of African strongmen.
It’s not usual to find a man in Africa like Kagame who does heroic things like stopping the Genocide, delivers services to people, economy is growing, the streets of Rwanda’s capital Kigali are cleanest in Africa, and Rwanda is the safest and even “pardoned” perpetrators including those who killed his kinsmen and then steps aside immediately after his terms end.
Rwanda under Kagame has a clear record of fighting corruption. Health care system is working; one cow per poor family is a success. Registering a business in Rwanda only takes 24 hours and you are done.
His supporters say they want him stay in office as long as he is still delivering. He has delivered a million out of poverty.
Another vaunted feat is progress for women. Rwanda has the highest share of women in government in the world. They may now inherit land, a rarity in many parts of Africa.
A lot of money, he says, has been spent to set up women in business and keep girls in school. Police and the courts have tackled wife-beaters. “The numbers are hard to come by.
“But we think domestic abuse has gone down.” Kagame says women are steadier and more honest: “I would be very happy for a woman to succeed me.”
Forget the fact that the Kagame himself had said in the past that if he fails to identify his successor by 2017 that would be his biggest failure-that was a political statement anyway. Forgive him because he is a human being like many African strongmen.
The only surprising aspect as far as Kagame’s third term bid which is different from other presidents who want to cling to power is that he is being taken ‘hostage’ by the masses who are imposing third term to him when “he does not want himself”-his supporters argue.
Many say those opposed to amending the constitution are likely to be victimized same way like former Justice Minister and Attorney General Tharcisse Karugarama whom is believed to have been sacked in 2013 for opposing the idea of changing the constitution. His sacking, served as a warning inside the ruling party. As Kagame persistently recommend for a debate, the elite class seem to be on mute. Civil society is silent. Almost every political party commenting chooses a safe side-recommending lifting term limits. The rest ramble internally. Silence is the norm.
In an interview with the UK’s Guardian newspaper, the former Minister said he firmly believed that Rwanda’s president would not be interested in amending the constitution, adding that there is a need to observe the rule of law.
In an interview with the same newspaper, President Kagame angrily reacted to a reference to this statement by asking the journalist why this Minister was bothered by whether he should go or not, when Karugarama himself “had stayed in government for so long”.
More than 3.5million people have petitioned the parliament in a process that could end the debate on his retirement by petitioning parliament to change article 101 that bars him from seeking his stay in power.
However, there is credible information which suggests those who petitioned to the parliament, some were forced by local officials and others were tricked. In Nyagatare district, followers of Association of Pentecostal Churches were told to fill there names, ID number, telephone number and signature to get food support from the government, instead the document was used by the church pastors to file petition to the parliament seeking a referendum to lift term limits.
There are available reports where in some instances local authorities forced citizens to write petitions. In government institutions some employees were told to do the choice between their jobs and signing petitions.
On the other hand, some legal experts believe that the Parliament is soon granting a referendum illegally. They argue that Art 193 gives powers to parliament to grant referendum only when it concerns the years constituting a term but not lifting term limits or extending terms limit. In reality, the only opposition party, Democratic Green Party lead by Frank Habineza has filed an injunction at the Supreme Court to stop the house from deciding about referendum.
Some political parties who endorsed lifting term limits are currently facing internal wrangles. Social Democratic party [PSD] is facing an internal crisis which might split the party into two. Already two of its parliamentarians have resigned. One senior cadre of PSD resigned from regional parliament EALA and another one from the national assembly and decided to defect as a result of friction in the party.
Kagame’s critics accuse him of running intolerant politics which is hostile to the dissident voices; his human rights record continues to worry some in the international community. Freedom of expression remains a concern; Press freedom in Rwanda takes one step forward and five steps back as international media watchdogs are tagged as heaters.
The Kagame’s party deliberately runs a system where nobody emerges as his alternative. The clear example of this is Dr. Donald Kaberuka who was greeted by boycott at his farewell reception in Washington to the extent that even Rwanda’s ambassador to US did not attend as the world appreciated Kaberuka’s legacy at African Development Bank [AfDB] regardless invitation at the invent. Rwanda is still silent on Dr Kaberuka’s performance.
Political observers think that boycotting Kaberuka’s farewell is directly related to the fact that several voices were suggesting long term Rwandan economist Kaberuka would be suitable to replace Kagame comes 2017. “Boycotting Kaberuka farewell party wasn’t an accident. If you want problems, try to be famous here,” one analyst said.
Similarly Col Rose Kabuye was a victim of her fame.
Inside the ruling RPF
Some believe that recent arrest of Gen. Frank Rusagara, Capt David Kabuye and Col Tom Byabagamba, plus the interrogations of Col Rose Kabuye, Col. Masozera, Amb. Mutaboba etc were linked to the emergency of discussion groups outside formal RPF channels in which lifting term limits did not receive favorable views.
September 07, 2014 Senator Tito Rutaremara said a group of women comprised of former state chief Protocol Col Rose Kabuye who are undermining the party progress and forming negative solidarity. Addressing the issue, Kagame called these disgruntled members of RPF “deviants.”
Jean Marie Sekamana, the senior cadre and the husband to the vocal MP Connie Bwiza who resigned recently fled to US after allegedly reporting embezzlement in RPF secretariat. Now, the former RPF MP is still being questioned by Police. Though RPF is covering up that everything is just fine but evidences suggests otherwise. RPF business is also shrinking. Accepting internal debate remains a dream desired to be attained. Unless writing some opinion pieces through a pro-government news paper The New Times, RPF cadres are afraid to come out for a debate or talk shows.
However, it would be difficult to blame Kagame for seeking his endless stay, he gets examples from his fellow strongmen of Africa, some analysts suggest mainly in the region.
In Uganda, Kagame’s revolutionary colleague President Yoweri Museveni ran for a third term after amending the Constitution and scrapping the two-term limits in 2005. He told Ugandans he was part of the prevailing peace they were enjoying. He needed also more time to modernize agriculture, professionalize the army and improve the quality of education.
Early this year, there were riots in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo when people took to the streets to oppose a draft law passed by the lower house to allow President Joseph Kabila to extend his stay in power.
The situation only calmed after the senate dropped the draft law and assured citizens that presidential elections would go on as planned in 2016. President Kabila’s term ends in 2016.
Now, in Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza is fighting tooth and nail to seek another term, defying opposition that his candidacy is unconstitutional as it breaches the Arusha Accords a deal that ended a 13 year civil war in which about 300,000 died.
Kagame would be on good company of long time rulers like Paul Biya of Cameroon, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Dos Santos of Angola, Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, Idriss Derby of Chad and Omar Bashir of Sudan. Also in Togo and Gabon, term limits have been successfully eliminated.

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